What is expected from the RBA today?
The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision at 2:30 pm AEST on Tuesday, 29 September 2026. That is 2:30 pm in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart; 2:00 pm in Adelaide and Darwin; and 12:30 pm in Perth. Its media conference is scheduled for 3:30 pm AEST. [1]
The cash rate target ahead of the meeting is 4.35%. The RBA’s published history records increases in February, March and May, followed by unchanged decisions in June and August. [2]
CBA economists expect a 25-basis-point increase to 4.60% at this meeting. Their published outlook brought that call forward from November, pointing to inflation pressures, higher oil prices and recent RBA commentary. This is a forecast from CBA, not a confirmed RBA decision. [3]
A move from 4.35% to 4.60% is a rise of 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points. It does not mean every mortgage rate becomes 4.60%.
Capital Connections’ take: prepare your loan, not a prediction
Our perspective for borrowers is straightforward: build a plan that works if rates rise, and still makes sense if they hold. A forecast can help you prepare, but it should not become the only reason you buy, refinance or fix your loan.
Budget for the possibility
Check what an extra 0.25 percentage points would mean for your actual balance and remaining term. Leave room for regular expenses and unexpected costs.
Review the loan you have
Look at pricing, fees, repayment flexibility and your remaining term together. A lower advertised rate alone does not establish that switching is worthwhile.
Keep your next step practical
Ask for a clear comparison, understand the costs and confirm the lender’s effective date before changing your repayment arrangements.
For Nepali-speaking households navigating Australian lending, the most valuable conversation is often about what the numbers mean in everyday life: the amount left after the mortgage, childcare, groceries and family commitments. We can help you work through your home-loan questions in Nepali or English.
A rise, a hold or a cut: what changes for you?
If the cash rate rises
Variable-rate borrowers should watch for their lender’s announcement. Recalculate your budget using the actual new loan rate and repayment notice, rather than assuming an immediate or identical change.
If the cash rate holds
A hold would leave the RBA target unchanged. It would not guarantee your lender’s pricing or remove the need to review an expensive loan. Keep the same focus on affordability and flexibility.
If the cash rate falls
A cut would differ from the CBA forecast discussed here. Check whether, when and how much your lender passes on. Any repayment saving should be assessed against your wider household needs.
What could a 0.25-point rise mean for repayments?
The table below models a home-loan rate moving from 5.95% to 6.20% p.a. These are illustrative mortgage rates, not the RBA cash rate and not a Capital Connections product offer.
| Loan balance | At 5.95% p.a. | At 6.20% p.a. | Monthly increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| $400,000 | $2,385 | $2,450 | +$65 |
| $600,000 | $3,578 | $3,675 | +$97 |
| $800,000 | $4,771 | $4,900 | +$129 |
| $1,000,000 | $5,963 | $6,125 | +$161 |
Assumptions: 30 years remaining, monthly repayments, unchanged balance and term, no fees, offset or extra repayments, and a full 0.25 percentage-point increase in the loan rate. Calculated using the standard monthly amortisation formula and rounded to the nearest dollar; differences are calculated before rounding. Actual lender calculations and your remaining term can produce different results.
A borrower with 18 years remaining should use 18 years, not restart the comparison at 30. Extending a term can reduce the regular payment while increasing total interest.
Compare your repaymentsWhat this means at your stage of the journey
Already paying a variable-rate mortgage
Find your current balance, rate and remaining term in your loan statement. Ask whether your pricing can be reviewed. If a change is announced, confirm the effective date, new minimum repayment and whether your direct debit updates automatically.
Approaching the end of a fixed rate
Review the rate you would move onto when the fixed period expires. Compare the likely repayment with your current budget. Breaking the fixed period early may involve costs, so request a written quote before deciding.
Buying your first home
Separate the lender’s maximum borrowing amount from the repayment you feel comfortable carrying. Retain money for purchase costs and a post-settlement buffer. Before signing a contract or bidding, confirm that your finance position and any conditions remain current.
Considering an investment property
Look beyond gross rent. Include vacancy, maintenance, insurance, management costs and other property expenses when testing the budget. Do not assume rent will immediately increase enough to offset a higher loan repayment.
Should you refinance or fix before the announcement?
There is no single answer that suits every borrower. Start by asking your existing lender about pricing, then compare alternatives on a consistent balance and remaining term. Include discharge, application and other switching costs, plus any fixed-rate break costs or lenders mortgage insurance that may apply. [4]
A fixed rate can provide repayment certainty during the fixed period, but compare that certainty with restrictions on extra repayments, offset availability and the cost of leaving early. A variable or split structure has different trade-offs. Today’s forecast alone is not enough to choose between them.
“After all costs, and keeping my remaining term the same, does this option improve my position—and what flexibility would I lose?”
Your five-step checklist after 2:30 pm
Read the official decision
Confirm the cash rate target and the RBA’s explanation. Headlines about expectations are not the final announcement.
Check your lender’s response
Look for your product’s new rate, effective date and repayment notice. The RBA announcement is not a notice from your lender.
Update the household budget
Use your actual balance and remaining term. Include bills that do not arrive monthly and retain a realistic cash buffer.
Compare before changing
Review total costs, features and term, not just the interest rate or a promotional payment.
Ask for help early
If the repayment is becoming difficult, contact your lender’s hardship team before missing payments. A broker review and hardship support serve different purposes.
One national decision. Different household budgets.
The RBA sets a national cash rate; there is no separate cash rate for Melbourne, Sydney or Adelaide. Your outcome depends on your loan, income, expenses and lender—not simply your postcode.
Capital Connections supports conversations with borrowers across Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, Canberra, Hobart and Darwin, including the Nepali community. Whether you are buying a first home, reviewing an existing mortgage or considering an investment, bring your own figures to the discussion.
Local purchase costs, property expenses and household commitments can differ. We focus on understanding those details rather than applying a generic “one-size-fits-all” repayment figure. City coverage here describes service areas, not branch locations.
Your RBA questions, answered
Has the RBA already increased the cash rate to 4.60%?
This is a pre-decision article prepared on the morning of 29 September 2026. A move to 4.60% is the CBA forecast cited here, not an announced result. Check the official RBA statement for the outcome.
Will my mortgage rate change at 2:30 pm?
Not necessarily. Your lender determines its loan pricing and effective dates. Check the notice for your specific loan rather than assuming the RBA announcement immediately changes your repayment.
Is 5.95% an available home-loan offer?
No. It is an illustrative starting rate used to show the effect of a 0.25 percentage-point increase. Your actual rate, eligibility, fees and loan terms may differ.
Can Capital Connections explain the impact in Nepali?
You can book a conversation with the Capital Connections team to discuss your home-loan questions in Nepali or English. Bring your balance, rate, remaining term and repayment details.
What if I am already struggling to pay?
Contact your lender’s hardship team as early as possible. You can also seek free financial counselling through the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007. Do not wait for another RBA decision before asking for help.
Turn the rate headline into a clear next step.
Bring your loan balance, rate and remaining term. Our team can help you understand the repayment impact and discuss options suited to your circumstances.
Book a time to talkSources and publication context
Prepared: 29 September 2026, before the scheduled announcement. This article preserves the pre-decision outlook. It is not a live rate feed and will not automatically change when the RBA releases its decision.
- RBA announcement schedule
- RBA cash rate target and history
- CBA economists: September rate-rise expectation
- Moneysmart: switching home loans
- Moneysmart: problems paying your mortgage
General information only; it does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. Repayment figures are estimates, not quotes. Credit is subject to lender assessment, eligibility and terms. Forecasts can change. If repayments are difficult, contact your lender early or use the hardship resources above.